Short- and long-term cyclicity in the time series of maize and pig production

Hegedűsné Baranyai, Nóra

Keywords: maize, pig, short- and long-term time series, forecast, product- and market process

The first objective of our study was the analysis of production and market processes. From the supply point of view, we examined the value of maize production and pig stock per one thousand capita since the beginning of the 1960s. We concluded that, if previous trends continue, the production level of maize will increase further in the coming years, amplified by the likely future prospects of the long-term cycles. On the basis of the five years forecast trend of the pig stock, the picture is very far from being positive. If past trends continue, further decreases in the pig stock can be expected. As-suming the continuation of the past cyclical processes, a downturn is likely to be char-acteristic of the cycle of the animal stock. The second objective of our examinations was the analysis of monthly changes in market processes (prices and bought quanti-ties) after the change of regime in Hungary. In the market economy, not negligible short-term cyclical fl uctuations have been taken into consideration in the market for purchase of both maize and slaughter pigs. Stochastic relationships were shown be-tween prices and quantities and feed price and pig price. Further examinations pointed out that the change in maize price occurs 12 months before the change in pig price.

Full article